China has been the largest economy in the world for eighteen of the past twenty centuries and it is clearly determined to regain its role as the hegemonic power in Asia and then challenge U.S. global leadership. Will it be able to sustain its 10% economic growth rate, quell rural discontent, build a sound market-based financial system, privatize dominant state-owned enterprises and move towards openness and democracy? This is a tall order and you can put me in the skeptic column.

Nevertheless, China’s raw industrial power, momentum and the palpable ambition of the Chinese people could realistically yield a huge return. I advise my clients to go ahead and invest in China but emphasize that this is a speculative investment. It is smart to protect against the considerable downside risk.

Here is a simple plan you might want to execute to capture the upside while cutting your losses if the Chinese economy hits a speed bump.

First, you could take a broad stake in China through investing in the China iShare exchange-traded fund (FXI) that is comprised of 25 of the largest and most liquid China names. All of the 25 stocks included in the China iShare are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Some of them are incorporated in mainland China (H shares) and some of them are incorporated in Hong Kong (red chips). The China iShare has been picking up steam in the last few months and is up just over 12% so far this year.

The China iShare provides good exposure to three key sectors of China: energy (20%), telcom (19%) and industrial (18%). This concentration can be viewed as a plus or a minus depending on your perspective. For example, some smart investors are placing a bigger bet on China’s consumer markets. The top five companies represent 40% of the index. The annual operating expenses of the China iShare are only 0.74% compared to 2% plus for other alternatives out there including actively managed China and greater China regional funds. Keep in mind that most of these companies are still largely controlled and owned by the Chinese government.

Next, you could take out some insurance to protect this position by purchasing a put option on the China iShare (FXI). It sounds complicated but is actually very straightforward. An option is a right to buy (call) or sell (put) 100 shares of a security on a fixed expiration date at a set price (strike price). For this right an investor pays a fee or premium.

While you may grumble about paying the premium with cold hard cash when you might not need it, you probably have home insurance just in case disaster strikes and no doubt you have some life insurance as well. Why not protect your portfolio as well? It is especially important to consider hedging against more risky emerging markets such as China. While countries like China offer tremendous upside potential, the downside risk can be daunting and immobilize even the bravest investor.

Let’s look at a couple of examples. Say you buy 100 shares of the China iShare (FXI) which is trading at $62 per share. Your total exposure is $6,200. Then purchase a put option (right to sell the China iShare) that gives you the right to sell FXI at a price of $60 on the third Friday in January 2008. I think we all can agree that a lot could happen to China, good and bad, from now until January, 2008. If the price of the China iShare moves down toward the strike price, the value of the option will increase.

This will cost you a premium of a little over $500 but limits your potential loss to $2 per share plus the premium. Or buy a put option at a strike price of $50 and your premium drops to about $200 with a worst case scenario of a loss of $12 per share plus the premium.

Here is another example. You know Latin American markets are hot and believe the bull market will continue but are wary that there is the potential for a sharp pullback. You could buy 100 shares of the Latin America 40 iShare (ILF) giving you exposure to Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Chile at a price of $113 for a total exposure of $11,300. Then buy a put option giving you the right to sell 100 shares at a strike price of $100 in March 2006 for a premium of around $300. Your worst case scenario would then be a loss of 15% with unlimited upside.

A Japanese Admiral was sent to liquidate the company’s assets. Litchfield was ordered to assist in this liquidation. He didn’t have any choice. He could either cooperate or face the grim consequences of certain death.

He was ordered to compile a list of the company’s assets—but there was one block of securities worth $750,000, which he left off the list because they belonged to the Hong Kong organization and were not part of the Shanghai assets.

Still, he feared the Admiral’s wrath should the omission be discovered.

And it was discovered—soon afterward.

Litchfield wasn’t in the office when the discovery was made; only the head accountant.

Litchfield received the chilling new on a Sunday afternoon. The accountant told him that the Admiral had flown into a terrible rage. He had stomped and cursed and branded Litchfield a thief, traitor, and scoundrel.

Litchfield knew the consequences of defying the Japanese Army. They were grim. He would be fling into the Bridgehouse! The name alone filled people with fear. It was a torture chamber. Litchfield had personal friends who had committed suicide rather than be taken to the Bridgehouse. Other friends had died in the Bridgehouse after only ten days. Now it seemed Litchfield himself was destined for the chamber of horror.

Litchfield went to the typewriter in his room in the Y.M.C.A. He wrote out two questions. The first: What am I worrying about? The second: What can I do about it? He had used this technique for years whenever he had a problem. Now, the answers might save his life. Writing down the answers to these questions clarified his thinking.

He wrote that the problem was that he was afraid that he might be thrown in the Bridgehouse.

“What,” he asked himself, “would he do about it?”

He spent hours answering the second question. He came up with four possible courses of action and weighed each one.

One, he could try to speak to the Japanese Admiral. But the Admiral spoke no English. He could use the interpreter, but this might only irritate the Admiral, for he was an irrational and cruel man who would rather let the sadists in the Bridgehouse deal with interrogations.

Two, he could try to escape. But his chances were slim. The Japanese kept track of him all the time. He had to check in and out of his room at the Y.M.C.A. If he did get caught trying to escape, he would be shot.

Three, he could stay in his room and never go near the office again. But, if he did, the Admiral would become suspicious. Soldiers would be sent to get him and they would throw him into the Bridgehouse.

Four, he could go down to the office on Monday morning as usual, pretending that nothing was wrong. Perhaps, the Admiral would have cooled off by then. Perhaps, he would be too busy to remember. Or, perhaps, the Admiral would give him a chance to explain why he made the omission in the list.

After long deliberation, the fourth option appeared favorable. It offered him the best chance of survival.

As soon as he had made the decision and made a commitment to follow it, a wave of relief swept over him. Exhausted, he went to bed and slept well.

When he entered the office on Monday, the Admiral was there, smoking a cigarette. He glared at Litchfield but said nothing. Six weeks passed, and still the Admiral did nothing to bring up the topic. Then—the Admiral was sent back to Tokyo.

The Success Principle

Make a decision and act on it. It could even save your life.

The Principle At Work

The total cost of your term life insurance rates can be tricky. Some term life insurance policies appear to cost more, but may, in fact, be cheaper when you look at the total cost of the term life insurance policy. For example, annual renewable policies increase your premiums every year and thus may appear to be more expensive than level term policies where the premiums never increase (although the initial premiums for a level term policy will be higher). But, in fact, level premium policies may involve higher costs over the policy’s full term, and become particularly expensive when you try to renew your policy at the end of the term. This is why you do have to compare term life insurance quotes.

Some of the factors that influence your term life insurance rates are:
· Whether or not you smoke. Tobacco users are twice as likely to die as non tobacco users while they are insured. Life insurance companies take this into account when they set their premium and cash benefits levels. You can save from 20% to 30% on premiums by quitting smoking.

· Medical Record. If you have a terminal illness, it is unlikely that any life insurance company will issue a policy. In the case of heart disease, you will get a policy but your rates will be high

· Occupation. if you work in a dangerous occupation, such as working on a ship that carries gas, this will put you into a higher bracket when it comes to getting rates for term insurance. You will have to shop around to compare term life insurance quotes if you are in this category.